Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions, 2-1-17

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With the PGA, SAG, and ACE awards handed out, a handful of Oscar categories are starting to crystallize. And yet others still seem fluid, not least of all Best Actor, which has as many as three potential winning contenders, though only one of them can claim to have won a major industry prize thus far: Denzel Washington.

The DGA announces on Saturday night, which should further cement the path to Oscar glory for La La Land. But even that major industry precursor doesn’t really signal the end of the road – final Oscar voting doesn’t open until nine days after the DGA prize is handed out. Not as though this has been a particularly unpredictable season (to the contrary, actually), but that’s a wide enough window to potentially allow some bonus pre-vote slipping and sliding.

One other, very tragic, news item that could affect voting in one category: the absence of Asghar Farhadi from this year’s ceremony due to the Muslim ban imposed by the U.S. “president.” Sentiments are strong enough throughout the industry that Farhadi’s film, The Salesman, could win the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film. What horrendous circumstances for the Iranian filmmaker’s second Oscar win, but it’s possible.

24 days remain until the 89th Academy Awards ceremony. Here’s where the race stands across all categories.

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Hidden Figures
  4. Manchester by the Sea
  5. Arrival
  6. Hacksaw Ridge
  7. Hell or High Water
  8. Lion
  9. Fences

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
  5. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land
  2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
  4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
  5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Best Actor

  1. Denzel Washington, Fences
  2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis, Fences
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  5. Nicole Kidman, Lion

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
  5. Dev Patel, Lion

Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  2. Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
  3. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  4. Luke Davies, Lion
  5. August Wilson, Fences

Original Screenplay

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
  4. Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
  5. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Film Editing

  1. La La Land – Tom Cross
  2. Arrival – Joe Walker
  3. Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
  4. Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
  5. Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts

Cinematography

  1. La La Land – Linus Sandgren
  2. Moonlight – James Laxton
  3. Arrival – Bradford Young
  4. Lion – Greig Fraser
  5. Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

Costume Design

  1. La La Land – Mary Zophres
  2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
  3. Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
  4. Allied – Joanna Johnston
  5. Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle

Production Design

  1. La La Land – David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
  2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig; Anna Pinnock
  3. Arrival – Patrice Vermette; Paul Hotte
  4. Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh
  5. Passengers – Guy Hendrix Dyas; Gene Serdena

Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. A Man Called Ove – Eva von Bahr, Love Larson
  2. Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow, Richard Alonzo
  3. Suicide Squad – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Nelson

Sound Editing

  1. La La Land
  2. Hacksaw Ridge
  3. Arrival
  4. Deepwater Horizon
  5. Sully

Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Hacksaw Ridge
  4. Arrival
  5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Visual Effects

  1. The Jungle Book
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Doctor Strange
  4. Kubo and the Two Strings
  5. Deepwater Horizon

Original Score

  1. La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
  2. Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
  3. Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka
  4. Jackie – Mica Levi
  5. Passengers – Thomas Newman

Original Song

  1. “City of Stars,” La La Land
  2. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
  3. “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
  4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
  5. “The Empty Chair,” The James Foley Story

Foreign Language Film

  1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
  2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
  3. The Salesman (Iran)
  4. Land of Mine (Denmark)
  5. Tanna (Australia)

Animated Feature Film

  1. Zootopia
  2. Kubo and the Two Strings
  3. The Red Turtle
  4. Moana
  5. My Life As a Zucchini

Documentary Feature

  1. O.J.: Made in America
  2. 13th
  3. Fire at Sea
  4. I Am Not Your Negro
  5. Life Animated

Short Film – Live Action

  1. Timecode
  2. Sing
  3. Silent Nights
  4. La Femme et le TGV
  5. Ennemis Interieurs

Short Film – Animated

  1. Borrowed Time
  2. Blind Vaysha
  3. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  4. Piper
  5. Pearl

Documentary Short Subject

  1. Joe’s Violin
  2. 4.1 Miles
  3. The White Helmets
  4. Extremis
  5. Watani: My Homeland
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I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.