Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions, 2-21-17


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Oscar voting closes today.

That’s right – at day’s end, the Oscar race will be officially over.

Tonight also marks the last of the industry guild awards, as the Costume Designers Guild holds its annual ceremony.

So we enter that five-day period that is filled with vote counting and prediction supposition – while the winners are being tabulated, the pundit class attempts to lock in predictions for the results of said tabulations.

This space will be updated a couple more times throughout this week, though it’s hard to see much changing between now and Sunday…save a few below-the-line prediction shifts, the inevitable result of self-doubting panic attacks on my part.

With five days remaining until the 89th Academy Awards, here’s a look at where the race stands across all categories.

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Hidden Figures
  4. Lion
  5. Manchester by the Sea
  6. Arrival
  7. Hacksaw Ridge
  8. Hell or High Water
  9. Fences

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
  5. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land
  2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
  4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
  5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Best Actor

  1. Denzel Washington, Fences
  2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis, Fences
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  5. Nicole Kidman, Lion

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  3. Dev Patel, Lion
  4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
  5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  2. Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
  3. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  4. Luke Davies, Lion
  5. August Wilson, Fences

Original Screenplay

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
  4. Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
  5. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Film Editing

  1. La La Land – Tom Cross
  2. Arrival – Joe Walker
  3. Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
  4. Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
  5. Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts


  1. La La Land – Linus Sandgren
  2. Lion – Greig Fraser
  3. Arrival – Bradford Young
  4. Moonlight – James Laxton
  5. Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

Costume Design

  1. Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
  2. La La Land – Mary Zophres
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
  4. Allied – Joanna Johnston
  5. Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle

Production Design

  1. La La Land – David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
  2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig; Anna Pinnock
  3. Arrival – Patrice Vermette; Paul Hotte
  4. Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh
  5. Passengers – Guy Hendrix Dyas; Gene Serdena

Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow, Richard Alonzo
  2. A Man Called Ove – Eva von Bahr, Love Larson
  3. Suicide Squad – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Nelson

Sound Editing

  1. Hacksaw Ridge
  2. La La Land
  3. Arrival
  4. Deepwater Horizon
  5. Sully

Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land
  2. Arrival
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  4. Hacksaw Ridge
  5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Visual Effects

  1. The Jungle Book
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Doctor Strange
  4. Kubo and the Two Strings
  5. Deepwater Horizon

Original Score

  1. La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
  2. Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
  3. Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka
  4. Jackie – Mica Levi
  5. Passengers – Thomas Newman

Original Song

  1. “City of Stars,” La La Land
  2. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
  3. “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
  4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
  5. “The Empty Chair,” The James Foley Story

Foreign Language Film

  1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
  2. The Salesman (Iran)
  3. Tanna (Australia)
  4. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
  5. Land of Mine (Denmark)

Animated Feature Film

  1. Zootopia
  2. Kubo and the Two Strings
  3. Moana
  4. The Red Turtle
  5. My Life As a Zucchini

Documentary Feature

  1. O.J.: Made in America
  2. 13th
  3. Fire at Sea
  4. I Am Not Your Negro
  5. Life Animated

Short Film – Live Action

  1. Sing
  2. Ennemis Interieurs
  3. Timecode
  4. Silent Nights
  5. La Femme et le TGV

Short Film – Animated

  1. Piper
  2. Pearl
  3. Blind Vaysha
  4. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  5. Borrowed Time

Documentary Short Subject

  1. The White Helmets
  2. Joe’s Violin
  3. Watani: My Homeland
  4. 4.1 Miles
  5. Extremis

About Author

I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.