Oscar Predictions – 1/13/2012

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15, January 2012Projection: Oscar

The major industry guilds have spoken. And the race has been shaken up a bit. Every category is in motion. And as the categories shift, so does the layout of these charts.

Updated predictions are below, now divided into three distinct sub-categories: Fighting for the Win, the only films/nominees with a chance of walking away with a statuette; Likely Nominees, those most likely to fill out the remainder of the category; and On the Outside, those who seem to have been pushed out of the running.

That’s right: I’m no longer simply presuming what will be nominated, but ranking the nominees within each category…out on a limb, I am…

 

Best Picture

Fighting for the Win:

  1. The Artist – Still the de facto frontrunner.
  2. Hugo – Still the most likely to take over the lead.
  3. The Descendants – At long last, it seems to have turned into the awards darling we all expected.

Likely nominees:

  1. The Help – Has held strong for the last four months and is still in the thick of the conversation. Could actually be attached to the list of frontrunners.
  2. War Horse – Seems to be trending downward. The guilds hurt this one.
  3. Midnight in Paris – Nominated for SAG, WGA, PGA, and DGA. Can’t argue with industry unanimity.
  4. Moneyball – Starting to feel like this one’s holding steady near the bottom of the eventual field…could be nominated, could be left out.
  5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Here it lurks, boosted by the guilds. Could make the leap.

On the outside:

  1. The Tree of Life – Of the ‘surprise’ nominees, it would be least surprising. But at this point, it would be a surprise nonetheless.
  2. Bridesmaids – Doesn’t seem likely to jump into the BP race, but it has proven industry love.
  3. The Ides of March – The PGA mention was clearly too-little too-late, but it proves the film does have its fans. A different release strategy may have helped.
  4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - One of those seeming locks that just never caught on. Not gonna happen.

 
Best Director

Fighting for the Win:

  1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist – Like the film, still hanging out on top.
  2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo – The mood is right and the race is open enough that Marty could wind up taking home his second Oscar. Time will tell.
  3. Alexander Payne, The Descendants – Suddenly a player in the race. Boosted by the DGA nod.

Likely nominees:

  1. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris - Widely seen as Woody’s best work in years. He should be in.
  2. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life – Could be the one difference between the DGA nominees and the Oscar slate.

On the outside:

  1. Steven Spielberg, War Horse – It seems as if the film has been shunned by the industry a bit. He may not get in.
  2. Tate Taylor, The Help - Not a likely nominee, but his film is a major player. Could happen.

 
Best Actress

Fighting for the Win:

  1. Viola Davis, The Help – The confirmed leader.
  2. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn – Could make a surge in Phase Two.
  3. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady – She’ll probably win the Golden Globe, but…

Likely nominees:

  1. Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin – I didn’t think the critics’ awards mattered. But love for this brilliant performance is starting to spread up and out. I’m finally coming around…this nomination could happen. And it should…since she gives the best performance of the year.
  2. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs – Got a much-needed boost from SAG. She’s likely in.

On the outside:

  1. Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Lurking for that fifth spot. A well-loved performance in a film on the rise.
  2. Charlize Theron, Young Adult - Once seemed like a surefire nominee…now seems entirely unlikely. A shame.

 
Best Actor

Fighting for the Win:

  1. George Clooney, The Descendants – Still on top…but in a tight, shifting race.
  2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball – Guild recognition has vaulted him into the “for the win” conversation. People are talking…
  3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist – Waiting to make his impact on the race. We’ll see if his Golden Globe acceptance speech vaults him into the lead.

Likely nominees:

  1. Michael Fassbender, Shame – Ridiculously left out of the SAG nominations, but I’m still confident he is an Oscar nominee.
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar – Boosted by SAG…seems like he’s in.

On the outside:

  1. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy -Well-respected, but no longer a likely nominee.
  2. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter - Could still make an impression on the race.
  3. Demian Bichir, A Better Life - SAG gives him a boost.

 
Best Supporting Actress

Fighting for the win:

  1. Octavia Spencer, The Help – In a wide open category, still the surest bet at this point.
  2. Berenice Bejo, The Artist – The SAG nomination means her fellow actors are taking notice. She is starting to ride the wide-ranging love for the film.

Likely nominees:

  1. Jessica Chastain, The Help – Big boost from a SAG nomination. On the rise…
  2. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids – She not only got the SAG nomination, but she’s piling up the critics awards. This could really happen.
  3. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs - Against all odds (and logic), her performance seems to stick. She could slip in.

On the outside:

  1. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants – Once a lock, now entirely uncertain. One of the most glaring SAG omissions. Still possible, but not sure…
  2. Carey Mulligan, Shame - Unlikely. Seems like this is a six-woman race.

 
Best Supporting Actor

Fighting for the Win:

  1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners – SAG nomination indicates that, in another wide open category, people still love and remember this performance.
  2. Albert Brooks, Drive – The biggest of all SAG omissions. But I still think he’s in.
  3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn – This category is nuts, and SAG made it nuttier. Branagh’s SAG nomination boosts him back into the pack.

Likely nominees:

  1. Nick Nolte, Warrior – He was a contender who got knocked out. Now he is back in the ring.
  2. Jonah Hill, Moneyball – SAG helps a lot. Tenuous, but in at this point.

On the outside:

  1. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - The last shimmering Oscar hope for the film.
  2. Ben Kingsley, Hugo - I still have a feeling this is possible.
  3. Armie Hammer, J. Edgar - With the SAG recognition, he is still in the conversation.
  4. Patton Oswalt, Young Adult - Way on the outside, but this is the widest of all wide open categories.

 
Best Original Screenplay

Fighting for the Win:

  1. Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen – Probably a two-film race…
  2. The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius – The other half of the two-film race…

Likely nominees:

  1. 50/50, Will Reiser - Undeserving, but it seems to have caught on.
  2. Bridesmaids, Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo - I’m being hopeful. It’s on the bubble.
  3. Margin Call, J.C. Chandor – As the film keeps winning ‘Best First Feature’ awards from the critics groups, it seems increasingly likely to be a nominee.

On the outside:

  1. Win Win, Tom McCarthy and Joe Tibani - Has picked up a lot of steam. Thanks for sending out those screenplays, Fox Searchlight.
  2. Rango, John Logan - Boundlessly creative and entirely deserving. Could sneak in.
  3. The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick - Probably seen as more a directorial achievement.

 
Best Adapted Screenplay

Fighting for the Win:

  1. The Descendants, Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash – Stock has risen quite unexpectedly. The favorite until further notice.
  2. Moneyball, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin – If any other nominee were to unseat Payne and Co., it would be this. A two-film race for sure.

Likely nominees:

  1. The Help, Tate Taylor - Easy.
  2. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan – Surprisingly, the film’s weakest element may garner its only major nomination.
  3. Hugo, John Logan – One of what will likely be several nominations for the film.

On the outside:

  1. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Steven Zaillian - If the film makes a stealthy Best Picture run, this could be one of the nominations that goes with it.
  2. Drive, Hossein Amini - A brilliant adaptation. On the bubble.
Jason McKiernan
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Awards Pundit & Senior Film Critic. I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.