Oscar Predictions 1/31/2012

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02, February 2012Projection: Oscar

DGA gave it to Hazanavicius. SAG gave it to The Help…but also Jean Dujardin. And of course, we have a set list of nominees to work with now.

Fresh predictions follow…

Best Picture
1. The Artist - The One.
2. Hugo - The only legitimate challenger.
3. The Help - Well-loved for the acting.
4. The Descendants - Was rising, now falling again.
5. Midnight in Paris - Classic Woody.
6. The Tree of Life - Reverence for Malick gives it a small passion boost.
7. Moneyball - Respected and liked…not loved.
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - They’ll regret this decision in the morning.
9. War Horse - The most-nominated film that most Academy members won’t admit to liking.

Best Director
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist - The One.
2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo - The only legitimate challenger.
3. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life - Possible if only because it was the year’s most towering achievement.
4. Alexander Payne, The Descendants - Not happening.
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris - It’s a “screenplay movie” only.

Best Actress
1. Viola Davis, The Help - Her genuineness will propel her to victory.
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady - Another almost-win for Meryl.
3. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn - With a better campaign and no Viola, she could’ve won.
4. Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Happy to be here.
5. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs - Realllly lucky to have secured the nomination.

Best Actor
1. Jean Dujardin, The Artist - This year’s Benigni.
2. George Clooney, The Descendants - Weak sauce Clooney with one good scene that panders to voters. But he’s been dominant.
3. Brad Pitt, Moneyball - Too early in his career for a Lifetime Achievement Award.
4. Demian Bichir, A Better Life - The actors’ actor.
5. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Too quiet to win.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help - She’s making it easy for voters with each jubilant acceptance speech.
2. Berenice Bejo, The Artist - A big artist sweep could sweep Bejo with it.
3. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids - Scene stealer probably won’t be Oscar stealer.
4. Jessica Chastain, The Help - The nomination is the reward for a spectacular year of work.
5. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs - Whatever. She’s not winning.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners - Wire-to-wire frontrunner.
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - The only conceivable upset. He will make the push.
3. Jonah Hill, Moneyball - A “welcome to the club” nomination.
4. Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn - A tag-along nomination.
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior - One of the Academy’s smartest nominations…but he can’t win.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen - Your winner…
2. The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius - …unless The Artist really sweeps.
3. Bridesmaids, Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumulo - Gut-busting.
4. A Separation, Asghar Farhadi - Soul-shattering.
5. Margin Call, JC Chandor - The nomination is the reward in this case.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - They will throw the movie a bone…
2. Moneyball, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin - …unless they think better of it and award the better screenplay.
3. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan - Deeply respected. Perhaps a sleeper.
4. Hugo, John Logan - Too much of a visual feast to merit serious consideration here.
5. The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon - A great nomination that can’t pull off a win.

Best Animated Feature
1. Rango
2. Chico and Rita
3. A Cat in Paris
4. Kung Fu Panda 2
5. Puss in Boots

Best Foreign Language Film
1. A Separation
2. In Darkness
3. Footnote
4. Bullhead
5. Monsieur Lazhar

Best Documentary Feature
1. Pina
2. Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
3. Undefeated
4. If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
5. Hell and Back Again

Best Art Direction
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
4. Midnight in Paris
5. War Horse

Best Cinematography
1. The Tree of Life
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. War Horse

Best Film Editing
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Moneyball
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. The Descendants

Best Makeup
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
2. Albert Nobbs
3. The Iron Lady

Best Costume Design
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Anonymous
4. W.E.
5. Jane Eyre

Best Original Score
1. The Artist
2. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
3. Hugo
4. The Adventures of Tintin
5. War Horse

Best Original Song
1. The Muppets
2. Rio

Best Sound Editing
1. Hugo
2. War Horse
3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Drive

Best Sound Mixing
1. Hugo
2. War Horse
3. Moneyball
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Visual Effects
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
3. Hugo
4. Real Steel
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Jason McKiernan
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Awards Pundit & Senior Film Critic. I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.
  • http://twitter.com/laura_grande13 Laura Grande

    Loved this post! Although, I think they might give Best Director to Martin Scorsese. Either way, as long as it’s one of those first two, I’m happy. “Weak sauce Clooney” should be his official name. Couldn’t agree more. I don’t get the fuss about him. Agreed on Nick Nolte …if Christopher Plummer hadn’t been in that category, I would have put my money on Nolte.