Oscar Predictions, 2/18/2012


The BAFTAs showered more love on The Artist, Jean Dujardin is spinning charm into gold, and there’s not much more to do than focus on the below-the-line categories and hope for some heretofore unseen surprises.

This week’s predictions…

Best Picture

1. The Artist - The One.

2. Hugo - The only legitimate challenger…if only it wasn’t seen as essentially the same movie as Number One.

3. The Help – An acting showcase, and the highest-grossing film in the category. Solid in third place.

4. The Descendants – Failed to capture that brief wave of love.

5. Midnight in Paris – Revered because it’s Woody, but not making a move for the win.

6. The Tree of Life – The smartest BP nomination of them all…but it stops there.

7. Moneyball - Respected and liked…not loved.

8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – The least nominated of all BP nominees, but I think it still holds sway over…

9. War Horse - …Possibly the least-liked multiple-nominee in Oscar history.


Best Director

1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist - The One.

2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo – If ever there would be an upset, this is the guy and this is the year.

3. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life – Want an even bigger surprise?

4. Alexander Payne, The Descendants - Not happening.

5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris - It’s “screenplay-only.”


Best Actress

1. Viola Davis, The Help – Your winner.

2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady – Making the rounds and trying to make an impression…but she will settle for second place yet again.

3. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn – Seems to have fallen off the face of the earth.

4. Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Happy to be here.

5. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs - Realllly lucky to have secured the nomination.


Best Actor

1. Jean Dujardin, The Artist – His effortless, genuine charm is making even mainstream audiences pay attention. Brilliant campaigning for this year’s Benigni.

2. George Clooney, The Descendants – Still in the thick of it. Could easily be the winner.

3. Brad Pitt, Moneyball – Trying to split the difference between the two top contenders.

4. Demian Bichir, A Better Life – Well-loved, but the nomination is the award.

5. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Not even the BAFTAs saw fit to award this fine performance.


Best Supporting Actress

1. Octavia Spencer, The Help - Done.

2. Berenice Bejo, The Artist - …Unless they realllly love The Artist.

3. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids – I honestly think she will get a lot of votes.

4. Jessica Chastain, The Help – My favorite performance in this category, but the nomination serves as recognition for her coming-out year.

5. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs – Um, no.


Best Supporting Actor

1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners - Wire-to-wire frontrunner.

2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - The only conceivable upset. Making the push.

3. Jonah Hill, Moneyball - A “welcome to the club” nomination.

4. Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn – Nomination out of respect, but it ends there.

5. Nick Nolte, Warrior - One of the Academy’s smartest nominations…but not a likely winner.


Best Original Screenplay

1. Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen – Woody’s most-loved work in years will likely lead to “we will accept this award on Woody’s behalf.”

2. The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius – At least if he wins, he will be there to accept.

3. Bridesmaids, Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumulo – Good on the Academy for nominating this one.

4. A Separation, Asghar Farhadi – A dark horse.

5. Margin Call, JC Chandor – Good recognition for an up-and-coming screenwriter.


Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - They will throw the movie a bone…

2. Moneyball, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin - …unless they think better of it and award the better screenplay.

3. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan - As it has been all season, a real sleeper. Probably too sleepy to win.

4. Hugo, John Logan – What if this happened?

5. The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon – Firmly in fifth, but a well-deserved nomination.


Best Animated Feature

1. Rango

2. Chico and Rita

3. A Cat in Paris

4. Kung Fu Panda 2

5. Puss in Boots


Best Foreign Language Film

1. A Separation

2. Monsieur Lazhar

3. In Darkness

4. Footnote

5. Bullhead


Best Documentary Feature

1. Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

2. Hell and Back Again

3. Undefeated

4. Pina

5. If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front


Best Art Direction

1. Hugo

2. The Artist

3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

4 . War Horse

5. Midnight in Paris


Best Cinematography

1. The Tree of Life

2. The Artist

3. Hugo

4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5. War Horse


Best Film Editing

1. The Artist

2. Hugo

3. Moneyball

4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5. The Descendants


Best Makeup

1. The Iron Lady

2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

3. Albert Nobbs


Best Costume Design

1. The Artist

2. Hugo

3. Anonymous

4. W.E.

5. Jane Eyre


Best Original Score

1. The Artist

2. Hugo

3. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

4. The Adventures of Tintin

5. War Horse


Best Original Song

1. The Muppets

2. Rio


Best Sound Editing

1. Hugo

2. War Horse

3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5. Drive


Best Sound Mixing

1. Hugo

2. War Horse

3. Moneyball

4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo


Best Visual Effects

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

2. Hugo

3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

4. Real Steel

5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Jason McKiernan

Awards Pundit & Senior Film Critic. I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.
  • George K

    War Horse the least liked Best Pic nom in Oscar history??? Really?  Even more than the reviled “The Alamo”? What about “Cleopatra”? Geez, even Walter Matthau hated “Hello Dolly!” I can go on and on!!!!

  • http://twitter.com/NextProjection Christopher Misch

    I know it’s certainly my own least liked Oscar nominated film. Found it to be one of the worst films I saw all of last year.

  • http://twitter.com/NextProjection Christopher Misch

    A Terrence Malick Best Director win would make my night!

  • http://justatad.wordpress.com/ Corey Atad

    Sure, but you know, that’s just your opinion, man.

    I happened to think it was the best film of last year. There are certainly a lot of opinions about it both good and bad.

  • http://twitter.com/NextProjection Christopher Misch

    I do understand that. And it’s a opinion that runs deep. I do understand there are other people on the opposite side, which is great.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah. Doesn’t anyone realize that War Horse is in the precise mold of the two movies you just mentioned?

  • Anonymous

    I find there is a lot to admire about the film, personally (though it wouldn’t come close to making my Top Ten). It is intended to be as lugubrious as it is, as a deliberate homage to late ’30s/early ’40s American cinema. But there are lot of people — not just critics, but people in the industry — who mirror Chris’ opinion.

  • George K

    I am NOT defending WAR HORSE as, like you, whereas there are things to admire about it, it is definitely not top 10 material. I only questioned the way you made the statement. I thought it was based on published facts and NOT a personal opinion. Personally, I would have preferred to see YOUNG ADULT, TAKE SHELTER, WARRIOR…heck…even 50/50, WIN WIN or THE IDES OF MARCH in its place