Projection: Oscar – A Late Arrival to the Land of Confusion

Okay…so where was I?

When last we spoke, I was nursing my wounds, all of which resulted from the collateral damage of last February’s Oscars ceremony, the worst I’ve ever witnessed in all my Oscar-obsessing years on this sphere. I was bruised, I was bloodied…I may have momentarily considered putting a hit on Seth MacFarlane (as it turns out, it’s a good thing I aborted that plan, since MacFarlane decided to commit suicide in the form of his new TV show, Dads). It may have been residual anger over that abomination of the institution I love that led to this very late start into the current awards season, which has been brewing since late August, with that unofficial-official jumpstart that is the Venice-Telluride-Toronto Fall Festival Trinity (you should legally have to refer to them in that manner…I’m totally gonna have that phrase copyrighted). But here I am, at the beginning of October, a full month later than most of my (admittedly more prestigious) awards pundit peers, here to say…blame MacFarlane. Just do it.

12 Years a Slave has already rented the posh space vacated by Argo at the end of last season, though Gravity is trying to move out from Life of Pi’s old place to swoop in and claim the prestigious spot.

Well, perhaps there is something else at the source of this late start. Perhaps there is another reason – or at least an additional reason – why it took so long to shake the dust off my Awards Pundit hat (it’s a very Heisenberg-esque hat that makes me look like a total awards-prognosticating bad-ass, but once I put it on, I’m required to write Oscar columns on a weekly basis). That, I think, has to do with the tone of the current season…really, the utter lack of a tone. The wind is blowing and the pieces are in play, but there isn’t an overriding sense of purpose to guide us through the wilderness.

Don’t get me wrong…I’ve been doing this long enough to know that each season starts open and vast, waiting to be shaped as the films populate the environment and stake a claim on their piece of the awards landscape. What’s unique about this season is that many of the films have already taken up residence in the Oscar community – 12 Years a Slave has already rented the posh space vacated by Argo at the end of last season, though Gravity is trying to move out from Life of Pi’s old place to swoop in and claim the prestigious spot. Other films have also secured their spots for the season – Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska. Others still are on the premises, on a waiting list to see if they can retain a spot – Mud, Before Midnight, Rush. Very few films have yet to arrive on the scene, though the landlord is hesitant to reach full capacity, lest they roll in demanding a permanent residence – American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks, The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street. It seems like we’re familiar with all the contenders already, and yet we don’t know them at all.

Last year was a parade of certainty, even when that certainty shifted from week-to-week. The narrative almost shaped itself (well, let’s be honest…we media types took great arrogant pride in steering that ship all over the ocean) as we proclaimed with certainty…Argo! No, Lincoln! No, Silver Linings! No, Life of Pi! No, Les Mis! No, Zero Dark Thirty! No, again? Damn, wait…okay, Argo. But hang on, how ‘bout Silver Linings again?! Oh…Argo, fine. There was such seeming moment-to-moment clarity that the season in total was a boondoggle. The powers-that-be were so back-and-forth with their alliances that they couldn’t even decide whether Argo was a sure-fire Best Picture winner or if it was too standard and lightweight to even land a Best Director nomination. In the end, apparently, it was both. Nuts, right? But “Nuts” was a theme for the season. And genius that he is, Seth MacFarlane seized upon that theme and delivered an Oscar ceremony that explicated it in spades (see what happens when I start writing? Clarity! MacFarlane is the piece of me that I wish I didn’t need! (gross)).

Without the promise of similar insanity this year, we seem to be lost in a land of confusion. Not that we haven’t already sampled the Chronic Certainty Disorder that was epidemic last year – in the span of about two weeks, both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave were deemed the Film of Destiny. When it debuted at Venice, Alfonso Cuaron’s stunning space opera was heralded as a new kind of film experience, buoyed by its astonishing visuals but firmly anchored by Sandra Bullock’s gut-wrenching performance. Then, a week later, Steve McQueen’s close-up examination of American slavery floored audiences in Toronto, usurping the conversation and claiming the universal title of Oscar-Winner-To-Be. Now, Gravity is back in the spotlight, having opened to the biggest October weekend box-office gross in history and reviews that flagrantly cross that thin line between rave and hyperbole. Critics love it and audiences are flocking. Next week, however, 12 Years a Slave takes center stage again, when it begins its slow cinema rollout, and it will surely ride the wave of its hype into big specialty box-office and glowing reviews. Back and forth the metronome ticks, and we may be moving to that beat for the remainder of the season.

And yet, uncertainty remains for many reasons. Gravity possesses universal themes but resembles a very niche film, since it is a Special Effects Movie. It will win several technical awards, so maybe AMPAS will opt to crown a smaller film with the Best Picture prize. 12 Years a Slave is sterling, but I have it on high authority that the film is not quite the traditional piece that the trailer indicates…

And yet, uncertainty remains for many reasons. Gravity possesses universal themes but resembles a very niche film, since it is a Special Effects Movie. It will win several technical awards, so maybe AMPAS will opt to crown a smaller film with the Best Picture prize. 12 Years a Slave is sterling, but I have it on high authority (for the sake of transparency, I will share my source: it’s NP CEO Chris Misch) that the film is not quite the traditional piece that the trailer indicates, but veers closer to McQueen’s decidedly more avant garde sensibilities. That will (and has) certainly work for the critic circuit, but the film’s wide audience possibilities seem slimmer, and in the same vein, its Academy chops may be limited. Chiwetel Ejiofor is a sure Best Actor nominee (he may actually be the winner-in-waiting) and the film will definitely be an across-the-board nominee, but the Academy has always been more willing to nominate challenging work than actually award it. So these two frontrunners, both deserving and both firmly entrenched in the race for the next five months, are still in flux, and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Other films already seem ready to accept their Best Picture nominations as consolation prizes. Captain Phillips will likely get in based on a combination of its pedigree (Hanks-Greengrass) and the simple fact that everyone seems to say it will. The film itself is…solid, nothing more. Its final 15 minutes are its most compelling, and will likely seal the deal for a Hanks Best Actor nomination as well. Nebraska by Alexander Payne, Inside Llewyn Davis by the Coen brothers, and August: Osage County by John Wells (one of these directors is not like the others) all seem poised to make a measured impact based on their favorable bows on the festival circuit. Ron Howard’s Rush has received positive buzz as well, though it may have to settle for nods for Cinematography and Supporting Actor. Prisoners, sprawling though it is, may ultimately be too small to be remembered. Dallas Buyers Club is still building buzz in anticipation of its November 1 release. Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s Don Jon and Jason Reitman’s Labor Day may have played themselves out of the Oscar race for good. But in Randy Jackson-esque “In It To Win It!” terms, it’s all about Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, and even they have those aforementioned pitfalls.

Further muddying the waters is that, predominantly, the other films that would appear to have the juice to win Best Picture have yet to screen for the public. Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks seems poised to capitalize on the warm-and-fuzzy sector of AMPAS, but it hasn’t debuted yet. George Clooney’s The Monuments Men is still in post-production in preparation for its late December release, and though the team keeps saying it’s purely a commercial release, that’s precisely the kind of smoke you’d expect them to blow while they are still prepping their late-game strategy. David O. Russell’s American Hustle seems to be a full-scale ‘70s-era Scorsese impression loaded with Oscar-caliber acting talent, which makes it appear to be a player…but it’s still in editing. Speaking of Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street is the biggest remaining question mark of the season…as in, will it even release in 2013 at all? We still don’t have that answer. Until we do, the film will hover over the Oscar race like a dark cloud.

So we push forward, awaiting the next release date, wondering if the first twist in the season is just around the corner.

This is the film world we live in/
And these are the movies we’re given/
Watch them and let’s start trying/
To make this a season worth obsessing over.

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Jason McKiernan

Sr. Staff Film Critic & Awards Pundit

I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.

Latest posts by Jason McKiernan (see all)

• Oscar Projections, 10/11/2013 - October 12, 2013
• Projection: Oscar – A Late Arrival to the Land of Confusion - October 9, 2013
• Review: Gravity (2013) - October 4, 2013