Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions, 1/29/2016

Just over a month to go…and it seems a new frontrunner has stepped onto the pedestal.

Adam McKay’s The Big Short took top honors at the PGA Awards last Saturday, claiming the first major industry precursor prize – ya know, the ones that indicate where Academy voters might be leaning as Oscar Night nears. The race seemed wide open, with as many as five films still legitimately in the mix. But with The Big Short walking off with the PGA prize, the field seems considerably curtailed, and the clever, zeitgeisty financial comedy-drama-hairdo-whatever is out in front. It doesn’t quite feel like an Oscar movie to me still, but I can only follow what the industry is indicating…and right now, it indicates The Big Short as Best Picture frontrunner.

Saturday’s Screen Actors Guild awards will have a lot to say about this as well…the Best Cast race would seem to be between The Big Short and Spotlight. Either the former receives an overwhelming confirmation, or the latter keeps the race interesting…if only for another week.

Behold this week’s Oscar predictions, to be continually updated each week, of course, tracking the race as Phase Two ebbs and flows.

Best Picture

1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Best Director

1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Adam McKay, The Big Short
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Matt Damon, The Martian
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress

1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
4. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay

1. Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton
5. Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Adam McKay, Charles Randolph, The Big Short
2. Emma Donaghue, Room
3. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
4. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
5. Drew Goddard, The Martian

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Sicario
2. John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
4. Edward Lachmann, Carol
5. Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, Carol
2. Sandy Powell, Cinderella
3. Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Jacqueline West, The Revenant
5. Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl

Best Film Editing

1. Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Hank Corwin, The Big Short
3. Tom McArdle, Spotlight
4. Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
5. Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Bridge of Spies
3. The Revenant
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian

Best Animated Feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Boy and the World
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
4. Cartel Land
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Son of Saul (Hungary)
2. Mustang (France)
3. Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
4. Theeb (Jordan)
5. A War (Denmark)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina

Best Sound Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Sicario

Best Sound Mixing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best Original Score

1. The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams
3. Sicario, Johann Johannsson
4. Carol, Carter Burwell
5. Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman

Best Original Song

1. “Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
2. “Writing’s On the Wall” from Spectre  
3. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
4. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
5. “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction

Best Live Action Short

1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Day One
4. Everything Will Be Okay (Ailes Wird Gut)
5. Stutterer

Best Animated Short Film

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. Bear Story
3. World of Tomorrow
4. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
5. Prologue

Best Documentary – Short Subject

1. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
2. Body Team 12
3. Chau, beyond the lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom