Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions, 2/5/2016

Well then…we have a race.

One week removed from The Big Short claiming the lead in the Oscar race with is PGA win, Spotlight hit right back with a Best Cast win at the SAG Awards, and low and behold, we have an uncertain Oscar chase yet again. Shouldn’t be remotely surprising given the way this season has unfolded, but each new turn is nevertheless delightful.

The last major precursor stronghold announces on Saturday – the Directors Guild of America. A win for McKay or McCarthy could signal Game Over. A win for Miller would keep things interesting. And for the record, I envision that’s precisely what will happen.

But if it does, how will that ultimately impact the final Best Picture vote? There are a few different options I discussed in more detail in today’s formal Projection: Oscar piece.

For now, though, behold this week’s Oscar predictions, to be continually updated each week, of course, tracking the race as Phase Two ebbs and flows.

Best Picture

1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Best Director

1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Adam McKay, The Big Short
3. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Matt Damon, The Martian
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress

1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
4. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay

1. Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton
5. Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Adam McKay, Charles Randolph, The Big Short
2. Emma Donaghue, Room
3. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
4. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
5. Drew Goddard, The Martian

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Sicario
2. John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
4. Edward Lachmann, Carol
5. Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, Carol
2. Sandy Powell, Cinderella
3. Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Jacqueline West, The Revenant
5. Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl

Best Film Editing

1. Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Hank Corwin, The Big Short
3. Tom McArdle, Spotlight
4. Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
5. Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Danish Girl
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Revenant
5. The Martian

Best Animated Feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Boy and the World
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
4. Cartel Land
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Son of Saul (Hungary)
2. Mustang (France)
3. Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
4. Theeb (Jordan)
5. A War (Denmark)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina

Best Sound Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Sicario

Best Sound Mixing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best Original Score

1. The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams
3. Sicario, Johann Johannsson
4. Carol, Carter Burwell
5. Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman

Best Original Song

1. “Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
2. “Writing’s On the Wall” from Spectre  
3. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
4. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
5. “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction

Best Live Action Short

1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Day One
4. Everything Will Be Okay (Ailes Wird Gut)
5. Stutterer

Best Animated Short Film

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. Bear Story
3. World of Tomorrow
4. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
5. Prologue

Best Documentary – Short Subject

1. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
2. Body Team 12
3. Chau, beyond the lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom