Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions, 1/22/2016

One week down, five more to go.

Also, one Charlotte Rampling out, four more still in the running.

There has been far too much circulating in the Oscar sphere in just the last 6 hours to adequately give credence in this space, which is just about tracking the race in terms of winner predictions. I’d say the #OscarsSoWhite movement has reached its apex, but that would only be for the sake of decent-sounding rhetoric…because frankly, we may not have reached that peak yet, nor should we. And then just this morning, Best Actress nominee Charlotte Rampling’s interview on French radio became the Oscar news of the day, with her claims of “it is racist to whites” and “perhaps the black actors did not deserve to make the final list,” and her ultimate question, “do we have to take from this that there should be lots of minorities everywhere?”

Charlotte Rampling is an Academy voter, FYI.

She will not be an Academy Award winner, however. Her already-slim chances of winning Best Actress this year are currently being burned in effigy, quite rightly.

So, there’s one swift movement on this week’s prediction list.

There are a few others, too, though at this point shifts are minimal. As the guilds start to announce we will a get a better idea of the industry temperature. That all kicks off in a major way this Saturday night, when the Producers Guild of America announces its Best Picture winner. I’ll have a brief PGA preview coming up soon, and a larger piece on the issue of race and the Oscars is still brewing, likely for next week.

For now, though, have at this week’s Oscar predictions, to be continually updated each week, of course, tracking the race as Phase Two ebbs and flows.

Best Picture

1. Spotlight
2. The Revenant
3. The Big Short
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Best Director

1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
3. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. Adam McKay, The Big Short
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Matt Damon, The Martian
4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress

1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
4. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay

1. Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton
5. Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Adam McKay, Charles Randolph, The Big Short
2. Emma Donaghue, Room
3. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
4. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
5. Drew Goddard, The Martian

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Sicario
2. John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
4. Edward Lachmann, Carol
5. Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, Carol
2. Sandy Powell, Cinderella
3. Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Jacqueline West, The Revenant
5. Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl

Best Film Editing

1. Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Tom McArdle, Spotlight
3. Hank Corwin, The Big Short
4. Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
5. Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Bridge of Spies
3. The Revenant
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian

Best Animated Feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Boy and the World
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
4. Cartel Land
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Son of Saul (Hungary)
2. Mustang (France)
3. Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
4. Theeb (Jordan)
5. A War (Denmark)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina

Best Sound Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Sicario

Best Sound Mixing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best Original Score

1. The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams
3. Sicario, Johann Johannsson
4. Carol, Carter Burwell
5. Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman

Best Original Song

1. “Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
2. “Writing’s On the Wall” from Spectre  
3. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
4. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
5. “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction

Best Live Action Short

1. Ave Maria
2. Day One
3. Everything Will Be Okay (Ailes Wird Gut)
4. Shok
5. Stutterer

Best Animated Short Film

1. World of Tomorrow
2. Sanjay’s Super Team
3. Bear Story
4. Prologue
5. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

Best Documentary – Short Subject

1. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
2. Body Team 12
3. Chau, beyond the lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom