Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions, 2/19/2016

At this late stage of the Oscar race, you will comes across two schools of thought. One is that the stars have aligned for The Revenant and we are poised for an Oscars sweep. The other is that the preferential ballot doesn’t work in The Revenant’s favor and that, in spite of an inevitable Best Director win for Inarritu, Best Picture is still open for The Big Short or Spotlight to take.

I’m on the latter train.

The Revenant is divisive, make no mistake. It also failed its only preferential ballot test of the season, from the PGA. If Best Picture was still tallied by popular vote, perhaps Inarritu’s film would, indeed, be a shoo-in. But on a preferential vote count, where number two votes (and maybe even number three votes) matter, that’s where films like Big Short and Spotlight can thrive. Since the former won PGA under a similar preferential system, that seems the most likely winner. And yet I still have a suspicion about Spotlight…if Revenant is too brutal and Big Short too jocular, Spotlight might strike a particularly sweet spot on many ballots.

And yes, I’m fully aware that predicting a Big Short or Spotlight win very likely means that the Best Picture winner only takes home two (2) total Oscars. But we’ve already seen three-Oscar BP winners…one less doesn’t mean the world will implode.

Behold this week’s Oscar predictions, to be continually updated each week, of course, tracking the race as Phase Two ebbs and flows. This is where we stand as of now…I guess, although let’s be honest, no one knows a damn thing.

Best Picture

1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Best Director

1. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
2. Adam McKay, The Big Short
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Matt Damon, The Martian
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress

1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
4. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Best Original Screenplay

1. Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton
5. Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Adam McKay, Charles Randolph, The Big Short
2. Emma Donaghue, Room
3. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
4. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
5. Drew Goddard, The Martian

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Sicario
2. Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
3. John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Edward Lachmann, Carol
5. Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, Carol
2. Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sandy Powell, Cinderella
4. Jacqueline West, The Revenant
5. Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl

Best Film Editing

1. Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Hank Corwin, The Big Short
3. Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
4. Tom McArdle, Spotlight
5. Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The Danish Girl
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian

Best Animated Feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Boy and the World
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Son of Saul (Hungary)
2. Mustang (France)
3. Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
4. Theeb (Jordan)
5. A War (Denmark)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Ex Machina

Best Sound Editing

1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Sicario

Best Sound Mixing

1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best Original Score

1. The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams
3. Sicario, Johann Johannsson
4. Carol, Carter Burwell
5. Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman

Best Original Song

1. “Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
2. “Writing’s On the Wall” from Spectre  
3. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
4. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
5. “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction

Best Live Action Short

1. Shok
2. Stutterer
3. Day One
4. Everything Will Be Okay (Ailes Wird Gut)
5. Ave Maria

Best Animated Short Film

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. Bear Story
3. World of Tomorrow
4. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
5. Prologue

Best Documentary – Short Subject

1. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
2. Body Team 12
3. Chau, beyond the lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom