Projection: Oscar – Oscar Predictions 12-23-2016



Well…the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist was released this week, thereby rendering my predictions completely REKT.

But we can only work with the information we have….which in this case is seven somewhat surprising nominees.

Emma Stone has been the subject of a Best Actress surge in the precursors this week…is that a signal of strength, or just a reactionary response to her lack of recognition thus far?

As we go dormant for the holidays, here’s a look at where the race stands, roughly 10 weeks until the 89th Academy Awards.

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Manchester by the Sea
  4. Fences
  5. Lion
  6. Hidden Figures
  7. Hacksaw Ridge
  8. Silence
  9. Hell or High Water
  10. Arrival

Other Contenders:

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Denzel Washington, Fences
  5. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Other Contenders:
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Garth Davis, Lion

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land
  2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
  3. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
  5. Amy Adams, Arrival

Other Contenders:

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga, Loving
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Best Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  2. Denzel Washington, Fences
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Other Contenders:

Tom Hanks, Sully
Adam Driver, Paterson
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Michael Keaton, The Founder

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis, Fences
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
  5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Other Contenders:

Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
  4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
  5. Issei Ogata, Silence

Other Contenders:

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen McKinley Henderson, Fences
Adam Driver, Silence

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  3. August Wilson, Fences
  4. Luke Davies, Lion
  5. Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese, Silence

Other Contenders:

Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Love and Friendship

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  2. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
  4. Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann
  5. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Other Contenders:

The Lobster
Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Film Editing

  1. La La Land, Tom Cross
  2. Moonlight, Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
  3. Silence, Thelma Schoonmaker
  4. Hacksaw Ridge, John Gilbert
  5. Live By Night, William Goldenberg

Other Contenders:

Fences, Hughes Winborne
Manchester by the Sea, Jennifer Lame
Lion, Alexandre de Francheschi
Arrival, Joe Walker
Sully, Blu Murray

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
  2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
  3. Land of Mine (Denmark)
  4. The Salesman (Iran)
  5. Tanna (Australia)

Other Contenders:

It’s Only the End of the World (Canada)
My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
The King’s Choice (Norway)
Paradise (Russia)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia
  2. Kubo and the Two Strings
  3. The Red Turtle
  4. Moana
  5. Finding Dory

Other Contenders:

Miss Hokusai
April and the Extraordinary World
The Little Prince
My Life as a Zucchini

Best Cinematography

  1. La La Land, Linus Sandgren
  2. Silence, Rodrigo Prieto
  3. Moonlight, James Laxton
  4. Jackie, Stephane Fontaine
  5. Arrival, Bradford Young

Other Contenders:

Lion, Greig Fraser
The Jungle Book, Bill Pope
Live by Night, Robert Richardson
Hacksaw Ridge, Simon Duggan
Hell or High Water, Giles Nuttgens

Best Costume Design

  1. La La Land, Mary Zophres
  2. Silence, Dante Ferretti
  3. Jackie, Madeline Fontaine
  4. Live by Night, Jacqueline West
  5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Colleen Atwood

Other Contenders:

Hidden Figures, Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
Fences, Sharon Davis
Rules Don’t Apply, Albert Wolsky
Captain Fantastic, Courtney Hoffman
Love & Friendship, Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh

Best Production Design

  1. La La Land, David Wasco
  2. Silence, Dante Ferretti
  3. Hacksaw Ridge, Barry Robison
  4. Hidden Figures, Wynn Thomas
  5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Stuart Craig, James Hambidge

Other Contenders:

Jackie, Jean Rabasse
The Jungle Book, Christopher Glass
Live by Night, Jess Gonchor
Rules Don’t Apply, Jeannine Oppewall
Allied, Gary Freeman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Deadpool
  2. Star Trek Beyond
  3. A Man Called Ove

Other Contenders:

The Dressmaker
Florence Foster Jenkins
Suicide Squad
Hail, Caesar!

Best Sound Editing

  1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  2. Hacksaw Ridge
  3. Deepwater Horizon
  4. Sully
  5. La La Land

Other Contenders:

Live by Night
The Jungle Book

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Hacksaw Ridge
  4. Live by Night
  5. Deepwater Horizon

Other Contenders:

The Jungle Book

Best Documentary Feature

  1. J.: Made in America
  2. I Am Not Your Negro
  3. Cameraperson
  4. 13th
  5. Tower

Other Contenders:

The Eagle Huntress
The Ivory Game
Life, Animated
Fire at Sea
Zero Days
Command and Control
The Witness
Hooligan Sparrow

Best Visual Effects

  1. The Jungle Book
  2. Arrival
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  4. Doctor Strange
  5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Other Contenders:

Captain America: Civil War
Deepwater Horizon
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Original Score

  1. La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
  2. Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka
  3. Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
  4. Jackie – Mica Levi
  5. Florence Foster Jenkins – Alexandre Desplat

Other Contenders:

The Jungle Book – John Debney
The BFG – John Williams
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Michael Giacchino
Hacksaw Ridge – Rupert Gregson-Williams
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – James Newtown Howard
Patriots Day – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Hell or High Water – Nick Cave and Warren Ellis
Moana – Mark Mancina

Best Original Song

  1. “Audition (The Ones Who Dream),” La La Land
  2. “City of Stars,” La La Land
  3. “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
  4. “Drive It Like You Stole It,” Sing Street
  5. “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls

Other Contenders:

“Runnin’,” Hidden Figures
“We Know the Way,” Moana
“Faith,” Sing
“I See a Victory,” Hidden Figures
“I’m Still Here,” Miss Sharon Jones
“Try Everything,” Zootopia
“Letter to the Free,” 13th
“The Rules Don’t Apply,” Rules Don’t Apply
“Start a Fire,” La La Land


About Author

I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.