Projection: Oscar – FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions



Well, then. We have arrived at Oscar Nomination Eve.

In a way, it’s hard to believe this has been going on for nearly five months, but it’s been such a smooth coast with not many bumps in the road thus far (plus, there was that whole “The United States is plummeting into Hellfire” thing going on that distracted us for the first three months of the race). The last potential for a bump would be tomorrow, when the AMPAS announcement could jolt us all out of our complacency and give us some sort of “Affleck gets snubbed in Best Director” kind of stunner. However, it just doesn’t feel like that kind of year. Tomorrow morning will likely provide confirmation on many fronts.

I think it’s safe to say that most of the categories have most spots locked, with the exception of one or maybe two. Best Actress has taken on the uncertainty typically saved for Best Actor – there are about nine solid candidates to fill only five spots. In contrast, Best Actor feels like a limited, set group of five. Some of the craft categories feel fluid still – Original Score, Production Design, and Costume Design all feel quite competitive in terms of which films make the cut.

As for Best Picture, the top eight seems relatively clear, but the open question always remains: will there actually be eight nominees? Nine? A full 10? Or less? If there are seven Best Picture nominees, which of the top eight gets left out?

Here now is one final pre-nomination shot at where the race stands, 34 days until the 89th Academy Awards, and less than 24 hours until the Oscar nominations are announced.

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Manchester by the Sea
  4. Arrival
  5. Lion
  6. Hidden Figures
  7. Hacksaw Ridge
  8. Hell or High Water
  9. Fences

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
  5. Garth Davis, Lion

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land
  2. Amy Adams, Arrival
  3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
  4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
  5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  2. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  3. Denzel Washington, Fences
  4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis, Fences
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
  4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  5. Nicole Kidman, Lion

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
  4. Dev Patel, Lion
  5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  3. Luke Davies, Lion
  4. Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
  5. Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
  4. Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
  5. Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Zootopia

Best Film Editing

  1. La La Land – Tom Cross
  2. Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
  3. Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
  4. Arrival – Joe Walker
  5. Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts

Best Cinematography

  1. La La Land – Linus Sandgren
  2. Moonlight – James Laxton
  3. Arrival – Bradford Young
  4. Lion – Greig Fraser
  5. Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

Best Costume Design

  1. La La Land – Mary Zophres
  2. Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
  4. The Dressmaker – Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson
  5. Hidden Figures – Renee Ehrlich Kalfus

Best Production Design

  1. La La Land – David Wasco
  2. Silence – Dante Ferretti
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig, James Hambidge
  4. Jackie – Jean Rabasse
  5. The Handmaiden – Seong-hie Ryu

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Deadpool
  2. Star Trek Beyond
  3. A Man Called Ove

Best Sound Editing

  1. Hacksaw Ridge
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Arrival
  4. Deepwater Horizon
  5. La La Land

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Hacksaw Ridge
  4. Arrival
  5. Sully

Best Visual Effects

  1. The Jungle Book
  2. Arrival
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  4. Doctor Strange
  5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Original Score

  1. La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
  2. Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
  3. Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka
  4. Hacksaw Ridge – Rupert Gregson-Williams
  5. Jackie – Mica Levi

Best Original Song

  1. “City of Stars,” La La Land
  2. “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
  3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
  4. “Runnin’,” Hidden Figures
  5. “Drive It Like You Stole It,” Sing Street

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
  2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
  3. Land of Mine (Denmark)
  4. The Salesman (Iran)
  5. Tanna (Australia)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia
  2. Kubo and the Two Strings
  3. The Red Turtle
  4. Moana
  5. Finding Dory

Best Documentary Feature

  1. O.J.: Made in America
  2. Cameraperson
  3. The Eagle Huntress
  4. 13th
  5. Weiner

About Author

I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.