Projection: Oscar – Post-Nomination Oscar Predictions

Five months down, one month to go, and only for the first time do we officially know the field we have to work with.

Nominations for the 89th Oscars were officially announced this morning, in a “live-stream” of recorded testimonials that felt like an infomercial, occasionally punctuated with the swiftest disconnected robo-announcement of nominees in Oscar history. It was gross, but many of the nominations were not (though some were…hello, Passengers and Suicide Squad).

La La Land did, indeed, match history, garnering 14 nominations – including a controversial one for Sound Editing. It is poised for Oscar domination until further notice. Also making history: six people of color landed nominations across the four acting categories – which, lest we forget, is exactly six more than last year. The nominations were less diverse, however, in terms of gender, with only two of nine Best Picture nominees featuring a female lead (two-and-a-half if you count La La’s shared lead), zero woman directors, and only one woman writer (Alison Schroeder for Hidden Figures)…who shared credit with a man.

Nine films were nominated for Best Picture – the expected nine, almost universally predicted by all who had predicted a total of nine BP nominees.

All 24 categories are now represented in this space. And the ordering of predictions moves from likelihood of being nominated to likelihood of winning. A few shifts have occurred as a result.

33 days remain until the 89th Academy Awards ceremony. Here’s a first post-nomination look at where the race stands.

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water
7. Lion
8. Hidden Figures
9. Fences

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
3. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Denzel Washington, Fences
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5. Dev Patel, Lion

Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
3. Luke Davies, Lion
4. Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
5. August Wilson, Fences

Original Screenplay

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
4. Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
5. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Film Editing

1. La La Land – Tom Cross
2. Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
3. Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
4. Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts
5. Arrival – Joe Walker

Cinematography

1. La La Land – Linus Sandgren
2. Moonlight – James Laxton
3. Arrival – Bradford Young
4. Lion – Greig Fraser
5. Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

Costume Design

1. La La Land – Mary Zophres
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
3. Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
4. Allied – Joanna Johnston
5. Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle

Production Design

1. La La Land – David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig; Anna Pinnock
3. Arrival – Patrice Vermette; Paul Hotte
4. Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh
5. Passengers – Guy Hendrix Dyas; Gene Serdena

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. A Man Called Ove – Eva von Bahr, Love Larson
2. Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow, Richard Alonzo
3. Suicide Squad – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Nelson

Sound Editing

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully

Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Arrival
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Visual Effects

1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Doctor Strange
4. Kubo and the Two Strings
5. Deepwater Horizon

Original Score

1. La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
2. Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
3. Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka
4. Jackie – Mica Levi
5. Passengers – Thomas Newman

Original Song

1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
2. “City of Stars,” La La Land
3. “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
5. “The Empty Chair,” The James Foley Story

Foreign Language Film

1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
3. Land of Mine (Denmark)
4. The Salesman (Iran)
5. Tanna (Australia)

Animated Feature Film

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. The Red Turtle
4. Moana
5. My Life As a Zucchini

Documentary Feature

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. Fire at Sea
4. I Am Not Your Negro
5. Life Animated

Short Film – Live Action

1. Timecode
2. Sing
3. Silent Nights
4. La Femme et le TGV
5. Ennemis Interieurs

Short Film – Animated

1. Borrowed Time
2. Blind Vaysha
3. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
4. Piper
5. Pearl

Documentary Short Subject

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. 4.1 Miles
4. Extremis
5. Watani: My Homeland