Projection: Oscar – FINAL Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards


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Time’s up. Put your pencils down.

The past six months of prognostication all boils down to tonight, when the envelopes are opened.

As much as Best Picture might feel like a foregone conclusion (and I actually don’t think it is the most certain category of them all), some uncertainties remain. How long are the La La Land coattails? Does it tie the all-time win record? Does Damien Chazelle win Original Screenplay, or does Kenneth Lonergan take it? Denzel or Casey for Best Actor? Does The Salesman win Foreign Language Film in the wake of protest over the Muslim ban? What about the Short categories, all three of which are about as wide open as any year in recent memory? Even below the line there are oddities. I could see Hacksaw Ridge besting La La in Film Editing, though it’s not at all wise to actually make that pick. I could also see La La sweeping the Sound categories even though it isn’t really deserving for Sound Editing. In spite of the seemingly inexorable march of this race, there remains some intrigue.

Behold, my final predictions in all 24 categories. No need for any dark horse or spoiler picks, because no one gets points for those. No longer need any rankings, because those stats aren’t ever distributed anyway. Only picking winners in this space.

Zero days remain until the 89th Academy Award. This is Oscar Day. Here’s my final take on where the race stands across all categories.

Best Picture

La La Land

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Best Actress

Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Actor

Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Adapted Screenplay

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Original Screenplay

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Film Editing

La La Land – Tom Cross


La La Land – Linus Sandgren

Costume Design

Jackie – Madeline Fontaine

Production Design

La La Land – David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco

Makeup and Hairstyling

Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow, Richard Alonzo

Sound Editing

Hacksaw Ridge

Sound Mixing

La La Land

Visual Effects

The Jungle Book

Original Score

La La Land – Justin Hurwitz

Original Song

“City of Stars,” La La Land

Foreign Language Film

A Man Called Ove (Sweden)

Animated Feature Film


Documentary Feature

O.J.: Made in America

Short Film – Live Action


Short Film – Animated


Documentary Short Subject

Joe’s Violin


About Author

I married into the cult of cinema at a very young age - I wasn't of legal marriage age, but I didn't care. It has taken advantage of me and abused me many times. Yet I stay in this marriage because I'm obsessed and consumed. Don't try to save me -- I'm too far gone.